A glimpse of the future can be found at the Microsoft Technology Center in Manhattan, where visitors can get their hands on a Surface table. The Surface computer, which debuted for commercial use in July, has a 30-inch screen on which users can tap, drag, spin and zoom in and out with their fingers or an object such as a paintbrush.

The computer mouse may someday become an endangered species.

Instead of rolling a mouse around to move a cursor around on the screen, more and more users will gesture with their fingers on touch screens and multi-touch track pads, analysts say.

Or they will tilt or shake the phones or other hand-held devices themselves to manipulate them, said Steve Prentice, vice president and fellow at Gartner, a market-research firm based in Stamford, Conn.

Apple's iPhone, Nokia and other smart phones are already undergoing such a transformation with touch screens, he said in an e-mail, and the switch "will accelerate over the next two to three years."

On an iPhone or iPod touch, a user can scroll through album covers by flicking a finger across the screen, or tilt and turn the device to control actions in a game.

Prentice, based in Egham, England, said it is likely users will stop connecting a mouse to their laptop computers within the next five years, if they haven't already. And the use of a mouse will diminish on office desktop computers after that. The new track pads are seen as offering more versatility.

"The demise will be hastened by the move toward 3D environments, which encourage a more complex range of movements to move around, and by the growth of multimedia applications and manipulation, which encourage a more natural user interface," he said.

Already, Hewlett-Packard makes a TouchSmart personal computer with a touch-screen monitor. Apple's new laptop computers have track pads that support gestures with two, three or four fingers. And the upcoming Microsoft Windows 7 will also support multi-touch.

Not so fast, says Logitech International, the Swiss maker of mice and other peripherals . Touch screens will continue to develop, but, "I don't see a world where it would override the effectiveness of the mouse and keyboard," said Erik Charlton, director of product marketing for Logitech retail pointing devices.

The history of the mouse dates to 1968, originating at what was then known as Stanford Research Institute.

A glimpse of the future can be found at the Microsoft Technology Center in Manhattan, where visitors can get their hands on a Surface table.

The Surface computer, which debuted for commercial use in July, has a 30-inch screen on which users can tap, drag, spin and zoom in and out with their fingers or an object such as a paintbrush.